[!@#$%!]

Originally Posted by Skuj

GOP holding with the Trumpy line: https://thehill.com/homenews/house/4...ouple-of-weeks

If, by Easter, things are turning around in USA, I fully expect to be attacked/harangued.

well, social distancing will take a few weeks show its effect because lacking tests we have no way to detect the infection rate. so yes maybe we will slow it down and see results, but also, the percentage of the infected population at that point will be much greater, so...

the classic growth curve goes like this:

 

that works for a bacterial population or some other organism but we can assume the same here. works with humans too. some scientists have theorized our population on earth will stabilize around 11 billion (we're currently 8)

first the organism reproduces at an exponential rate-- the upward curve. then it's still exponential but the exponent is reduced. growth begins to slow down as resources (space, food, infectable hosts, etc) are less available, they growth becomes more or less asymptotic with the limits of the environment.

so in the case of covid, that would be when 80 or 90% or more of the population has been infected.

then comes the decline phase which is when we start to develop herd immunity due to antibodies in individuals who were exposed but recovered.

social distancing should work, but we can't see results until patients stop coming in because we don't actually have tests to track who is actually infected. but we will also have more absolute numbers of people infected by the time we know how the rates are doing.

so yes, the curve will inevitably bend, either because of preventive measures or because we all got infected. the question is if it will bend soon enough for the number of sick not to use up all the ventilators.

the ventilators are the problem.

speaking of which, after spending all day saying new york didn't need the respirators it had requested, el dotardo finally ordered gm to start making them.

thanks obama for saving gm.