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Ireland managed 18 points and a goal difference of 4 in what, Italy aside, really was an extremely weak group. France accrued 21 points and a goal difference of 9.
France are ranked 9th in the world, Ireland 34th.
France have better players playing in a variety of strong leagues. Plus, they have the confidence that comes with being recent champions.
We could point to the draws against Italy and rightly say that they are a good sign, but scraping a draw because you don't want to lose is very different from actually beating a decent team. The fact that France finished second to Serbia might indicate a weakness though - great stuff from Serbia, who fully deserved to top the group, but still a bit of a surprise.
Ireland may win, I just consider it very unlikely.
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