[h8kurdt]

Surprised nobody has started a thread about this before.

So it's the day after that absolute CLANGER by Theresa May and anyone have any thought about what's gonna happen next?

Personally, I can't see it being long before she steps down and we have ANOTHER vote. That'd play right into the hands of Labour.

[!@#$%!]

i heard the news yesterday afternoon! but they were only about the exit polls, and i didn't wanna get my hopes up

but now i can safely say: haaa haaa haaa haaaa haaa haaaaa!

and maybe you get to keep scotland after all cuz they won't wish to secede so badly.

or will they?

best news of all is the death of ukip of course. ha! ha ha ha ha! mother fuckers...

but anyway. i hope laboUr doesn't fuck it up and keeps it reasonable. because the far lefts suck almost as bad as the wignuts, and now the pressure is gonna come from there to alienate the rest of your society.

it's always like that.

--

eta: reading about the DUP now. poor northern ireland!

[h8kurdt]

Well the SNP have lost too many seats to even consider asking for another vote so that won't happen for a while.

Frustrating thing is whilst the absolute BATTERING Ukip got, the fact the conservatives are having to cuddle up to the DUP to make up the numbers is just as bad in some ways.

Strange days indeed. Any guesses on how long it'll be before May gets ousted out?

[!@#$%!]

oh the snp lost too! god damn. i thought the threat of secession was the best check to keep your right wing reasonable.

i couldn't guess at all about your country's politics and i'm not big on betting-style prediction so im afraid i can't say how long she'll last.

but hey, this is JUST LIKE cameron did with the brexit, didn't he? wanted the support of voters and it blew up in his face?

i read a bit that the DUP was all about not-corbyin. is he your bernie sanders, sorta?

[demonrail666]

Originally Posted by h8kurdt

Any guesses on how long it'll be before May gets ousted out?

My guess is as long as it takes the Tories to find a suitable replacement. I don't think there's an obvious candidate waiting in the wings though. Amber Rudd would be an obvious choice but may be seen as too liberal within the party, and only barely held on to her own seat. The Right of the party would probably want Jacob Rees Mogg (who I confess to liking a lot, without actually agreeing with his position on most things besides Brexit) but he'll infuriate the centrists. Boris and Gove are surely too tainted by now to be serious candidates. More likely it'll be a 'safe pair of hands' like David Davies or Michael Fallon. Although I can't see either of them as long term options: more like caretaker leaders, in place to oversee the Brexit negotiations before a more long-term candidate emerges.

Problem then is, whoever's chosen, it'll almost inevitably lead to another general election, if only cos they'll want to dissolve their coalition with the DUP asap.

[h8kurdt]

Originally Posted by demonrail666

My guess is as long as it takes the Tories to find a suitable replacement. I don't think there's an obvious candidate waiting in the wings though. Amber Rudd would be an obvious choice but may be seen as too liberal within the party, and only barely held on to her own seat. The Right of the party would probably want Jacob Rees Mogg (who I confess to liking a lot, without actually agreeing with his position on most things besides Brexit) but he'll infuriate the centrists. Boris and Gove are surely too tainted by now to be serious candidates. More likely it'll be a 'safe pair of hands' like David Davies or Michael Fallon. Although I can't see either of them as long term options: more like caretaker leaders, in place to oversee the Brexit negotiations before a more long-term candidate emerges.

Problem then is, whoever's chosen, it'll almost inevitably lead to another general election, if only cos they'll want to dissolve their coalition with the DUP asap.

Kin Jacob "I'll go canvassing with my nanny" Mogg? Jeez man, have a word! If there's a leadership change before the negotiations begin then it really is an omnishambles.

The more I read about it the more fucking angry I am about the whole debacle. Fact is they're gonna go into negotiations with the EU with zero leverage. They're gonna get laughed out the building no matter what they say. Worst bit is the only people who get fucked over in the long run is the public.

"No deal is better is better than a bad deal"? prick

All Labour can do atm is play the waiting game for the next elections.

AAANNNNDDD breathe.

[demonrail666]

I don't believe you can negotiate properly when whoever you're negotiating with knows you can't ultimately walk away. It's irrelevant now because the election result has put us in precisely that position, where we can't just walk away, but the original negotiation strategy of no deal being better than a bad deal seemed sound to me. The result's a disaster for me because I wanted a hard-brexit but I can't see why remainers or soft-brexiters aren't happy with it. Surely they're more likely to get their way now than would've been the case had the election not been called at all, or if the Tories had kept their majority.

[!@#$%!]

what do you mean you can't walk away? what's the diff between the hard and soft brexits exactly?

[h8kurdt]

Originally Posted by !@#$%!

what do you mean you can't walk away? what's the diff between the hard and soft brexits exactly?

Technically we can ignore triggering article 50 (the notice sent to the EU that we wanted to leave) but we won't. So it's not like we can go into negotiations with any leverage. The EU know they hold all the cards and we can't do anything about it now. May had this election with the sole purpose of gaining more seats in parliament and making the conservatives stronger to push through whatever laws they wanted post EU negotiations. It was a gamble that failed massively.

Hard exit/Soft exit. This is basically down to how much do we cut off from the EU. A soft exit would mean keeping, for example, tariff free trade with the EU, but the EU would demand that to get that we'd have to continue allowing freedom of movement for people in the EU. The freedom of movement was a massive deal for people wanting out so it's not gonna be great to hear they have to accept that.

Dunno if that makes for things any clearer

[h8kurdt]

Originally Posted by demonrail666

I don't believe you can negotiate properly when whoever you're negotiating with knows you can't ultimately walk away. It's irrelevant now because the election result has put us in precisely that position, where we can't just walk away, but the original negotiation strategy of no deal being better than a bad deal seemed sound to me. The result's a disaster for me because I wanted a hard-brexit but I can't see why remainers or soft-brexiters aren't happy with it. Surely they're more likely to get their way now than would've been the case had the election not been called at all, or if the Tories had kept their majority.

This "no deal is better than a bad deal" was total bollocks though. So she was saying "Yeah, if things don't go as we want then fuck 'em we'll walk away". You're saying you'd have been happy to walk away with nothing in place? Especially regarding trade and then having to go begging to U.S.A etc. for more trade deals. Bearing in mind Trump would see that as a weakness and try to fuck us over whilst smiling politely.

As we've seen already other EU countries are sending over big wigs from the financial industry to woo over big companies from here to France, Germany or wherever else. All this has done is create uncertainty in the markets and it's gonna sting us hard.

I was/am a remainer and very much for the case of a soft-brexit. However to say we should be lapping the prospect of May going to negotiations with nothing is wrong. At the end of the day I, you, or anyone else want what's best for the U.K. Especially i the long term. Nothing can go well going into talks like we atm. The EU can put whatever price they want for us to leave, the can seemingly say or do anything they want and we're gonna have to take it.

[h8kurdt]

Basically, no matter what May does now it's only gonna end badly.

[demonrail666]

Originally Posted by h8kurdt

You're saying you'd have been happy to walk away with nothing in place?

No I wouldn't, but 'no deal is better than a bad deal' isn't an objective. May never said she plans to come back without a deal. It's a negotiation strategy, without which the EU can effectively table any set of conditions it likes, insist they're non-negotiable, and that's that. If they know we can't come away without a deal, why would they bend one inch in our favour?

[demonrail666]

Originally Posted by h8kurdt

May had this election with the sole purpose of gaining more seats in parliament and making the conservatives stronger to push through whatever laws they wanted post EU negotiations. It was a gamble that failed massively.

I don't necessarily disagree with her decision to have an election (at least from a tactical point of view) but I can't for the life of me understand the thinking behind her manifesto. She had this in the bag. Even with her lack of charisma, all she had to do was say a couple of good things about Brexit and wait for a landslide. Why aggravate the grey-vote she's so dependent on by targeting them for tax? Why needlessly alienate potential voters by reversing the ban on fox-hunting, especially when anyone in favour of it was likely always gonna vote Tory anyway? Did she really think refusing to debate Corbyn would reflect better on her than on him? Seriously, how did she let herself get into a position where she couldn't get a majority over a party with a self confessed marxist in charge of the budget, a leader who struggled to throw off his associations with the IRA (during a campaign marked by three terror attacks) ... and Diane Abbott. It's like your point in the football thread about anyone being able to manage Real Madrid. I disagree with your friends point, but then again, I reckon most people could've done a better job of securing a Tory majority against a Corbyn lead Labour party. They wouldn't even need to be Tories, just have an atom of common sense.

[!@#$%!]

thanks for the replies and i read about the soft and hard brexit, but is the soft exit even possible? i mean if you're out you're out-- i forget who im quoting here. you can't drop the thing and stay in the common market, can you? i mean. all the benefits without any sacrifice? who would concede that?

from what i understand europe wants things over and done with, and if article 50 is not triggered i'm thinking europe would kick you out eventually, right? i mean-- plans need to be made, you're either in or you're out, can't be in limbo forever..

so im guessing the sooner the better for everyone. what's left to discuss i suppose is who pays for what. yes? or am i missing something?

i didn't know may was such an incompetent candidate. that's kind of hilarious.

[greenlight]

Jonathan Pie sums it up in 3 min. nicely.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qsGVghRBdKI

[Genteel Death]

Originally Posted by !@#$%!

from what i understand europe wants things over and done with, and if article 50 is not triggered i'm thinking europe would kick you out eventually, right? i mean-- plans need to be made, you're either in or you're out, can't be in limbo forever..

She triggered article 50 back in March. She's now in the awful position of having wasted valuable time on an election she could have called before it was decided that the clock should start ticking. But even then the process would have involved learning some home truths that are too hard to swallow.

[demonrail666]

Originally Posted by !@#$%!

i didn't know may was such an incompetent candidate. that's kind of hilarious.

It came as a surprise to me too. I was never exactly a fan but I did have her pinned as one of those quite bland but ultimately capable politicians. Before she published her manifesto her ratings were high. Then it all started to fall apart. To be fair though, it wasn't just about her mistakes, Corbyn came across far better in his campaign than many people expected. He's certainly discarded the 'unelectable' tag that many (even within his own party) gave him prior to the election.

[!@#$%!]

Originally Posted by Genteel Death

She triggered article 50 back in March. She's now in the awful position of having wasted valuable time on an election she could have called before it was decided that the clock should start ticking. But even then the process would have involved learning some home truths that are too hard to swallow.

porkitto! good to see ya

yes

i knew she did but i misspoke, in the context that demonyo said of ignoring having triggered it. i mean the UK might pretend "nothing to see here" but europe wouldn't stand for it-- they want to get on with their lives. there are plans and investments to be made that require long-term commitments.

how are you and would you be ok with this split? you still an "immigrant" or did you naturalize?

[h8kurdt]

[quote=demonrail666]

I don't necessarily disagree with her decision to have an election (at least from a tactical point of view)

Nah, it was nothing more than a power grab by her. She and the conservatives were in a decent position. She could have gone into negotiations waving the flag and then all things being well come out smelling of roses. But no she got cocky and most of all greedy.

I can't for the life of me understand the thinking behind her manifesto. She had this in the bag. Even with her lack of charisma, all she had to do was say a couple of good things about Brexit and wait for a landslide. Why aggravate the grey-vote she's so dependent on by targeting them for tax? Why needlessly alienate potential voters by reversing the ban on fox-hunting, especially when anyone in favour of it was likely always gonna vote Tory anyway? Did she really think refusing to debate Corbyn would reflect better on her than on him? Seriously, how did she let herself get into a position where she couldn't get a majority over a party with a self confessed marxist in charge of the budget, a leader who struggled to throw off his associations with the IRA (during a campaign marked by three terror attacks) ... and Diane Abbott.

It was a disaster every step of the way. Fuck 'em. They showed their true colours with this manifesto and whilst they didn't lose, they certainly didn't win either.

God knows who can replace her though.

[greenlight]